The main battlegrounds are the country’s economic hub, Istanbul, and the capital, Ankara, both of which Erdogan lost in 2019, shattering his aura of invincibility. The 70-year-old Turkish president has set his sights on wresting back Istanbul, a city of 16 million people where he was born and raised and where he began his political career as mayor in 1994.

A strong showing for Erdogan’s ruling Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party, or AKP, would likely harden his resolve to usher in a new constitution—one that would reflect his conservative values and allow him to rule beyond 2028 when his current term ends, analysts say.

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