The EC order further says: “Both the groups shall also be allotted such different symbols as they may choose from the list of free symbols notified by the Election Commission for the purposes of the current bye-elections”.  The factions have been asked to approach the commission on Monday. Will Shinde also pick a symbol even when he does not intend to contest the bypoll?

Amid talks of symbol allotment, a question pops up. Will reaching out with a new election symbol be so tedious in modern times such as these? The country’s electoral history says that the parties which were allotted new symbols after the split returned with a great gain. But that gain was a result of hard work that took the party’s popularity to its zenith in that particular election.

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One of these parties, the Congress, went down after reaching a peak, while the other, the BJP, moved up gradually from two seats in Lok Sabha to over 300 in the same period. The Congress fought its splinters and mainstream parties. Thackeray’s regional party finds itself in the same situation. It faces the BJP and Shinde Sena. Thackeray’s first test will be the Andheri bypoll, and if the matter is not settled in his favour, which according to the previous instances is most likely, he will have to contest the local body polls, including Mumbai’s, without ‘bow and arrow’. The positive side will be that the new symbol would be in great circulation by then and should help the ex-CM. On the other hand, if we assume that it doesn’t contest the bypoll and delays picking a new symbol, Shinde Sena will be lagging behind in branding. We will have to wait to know what Shinde will do immediately in the EC to stop Thackeray Sena in its new tracks. He may compensate for the lag, if any, by a publicity blitzkrieg in the later stages. Shinde Sena has proved on Dussehra that it has learnt to create an event out of anything.

While the two Senas are warring with all their might, the BJP is at the receiving end from Thackeray supporters, the MVA partners included. Shinde’s ruling partner is portrayed as a villain and accused of attempting to finish the Thackeray Sena. If the BJP contests the bypoll—in fact, it started campaigning much before—the opponents will be using the accusation as a poll plank to attract sympathy votes for a candidate, most likely the widow of a deceased MLA. The plank is expected to be intensified as time passes and more polls are held. For the record, Shinde has completed over 100 days in the CM’s office which released a list of major decisions he has taken. The decisions will be examined for their fruitfulness over the coming days. For now, Shinde has emerged as a head of state who is increasingly engaged in politics of survival and supremacy.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
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