Very happy about the overall national exit polls, the BJP leaders haven’t accepted the forecast for Maharashtra, notwithstanding the fact they had to work much harder than the 2014 and 2019 general elections this time. PM Narendra Modi had to cover the maximum seats for apparent reasons. It had become evident that Modi alone could stonewall the tide; retain core BJP voters and influence the floating ones, while Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray and the Congress fanned anti-Modi sentiment in their respective areas. Sympathy for Pawar and Thackeray remained one of the influential factors, while the Maratha resentment made things easier for the Opposition in some crucial seats. Yet, the BJP leaders insist that they will do better, much better. If not more, they will retain the previous numbers (41), they said.

The MVA, too, has dismissed both national and Maharashtra predictions. The opposition bloc expects more than 35 seats in Maharashtra. They have levelled various kinds of allegations against the BJP and media houses for the exit poll results that indicate Modi’s return. “It can’t be, it will never be,” said a Congress leader about the projections. “INDIA is forming the government,” he insisted. 

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Other than astute hopefuls like the Congress leader I spoke to, there are leaders in the MVA and MVA camps, who believe that the exit polls outcome for Maharashtra could be closer to the results on June 4. They have their own estimates, backed by the decades of experience. They do not see much gap between the numbers of two alliances. They expect BJP to be the single largest party, followed by the Thackeray Sena in the second place. The consensus seems to be on ‘50:50’, subject to the surprises the results spring.

If the exit polls turn into a reality, it will be understood that the Modi magic didn’t work in Maharashtra’s all 48 segments. It will indicate that the elections were influenced by state-level politics, party splits, new political alignments and social/caste issues.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
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