For another, the Ranjana Desai Delimitation Commission has redrawn J&K’s electoral map, increasing the Jammu region’s share in the Assembly to 43 seats, up from the earlier 37, but adding just one seat to Kashmir’s previous share of 46 seats. The Commission’s decision is bewildering as Kashmir’s population is 13 percent higher than Jammu’s.

Even more significantly, the Commission engaged in gerrymandering constituencies to the BJP’s advantage. According to one estimate, there are now 31 Hindu-majority constituencies, up from the previous 24 before the delimitation. The BJP hopes the traditional rivalry between the regions of Jammu and Kashmir will lure the Hindus to vote for Hindutva.

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The BJP has also deployed the politics of polarisation for widening the chasm between the Gujjar-Bakerwal and the Paharis. After the Scheduled Tribe status was granted, in 1991-1992, to the Gujjar-Bakerwal, the Paharis too clamoured for it. Their demand was repeatedly turned down because their primary identity is linguistic, not tribal, which is the principal determinant for granting the Scheduled Tribe status to a community.

Yet, after 2019, the BJP government granted the Scheduled Tribe status to the Pahari community and carved out a separate quota for them in government jobs. Since the Paharis comprise adherents of all faiths, the BJP hopes the Muslim among them will return the favour of reservation bestowed on them and vote for the party, thus providing it a foothold in the Muslim-majority constituencies of Rajouri and Poonch.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won the two parliamentary constituencies in the Jammu region—Jammu and Udhampur—by well over one lakh votes in each. Yet its vote share, in comparison to 2019, plummeted by more than 1.5 lakh votes in both, which was interpreted as a reflection of the disquiet in the Jammu region. Its economy has been severely affected because of the lt. governor’s decision to discontinue the practice of transferring the capital from Srinagar to Jammu every winter. No tangible benefits have accrued to Jammu as its people had hoped with the reading down of Article 370. For Jammu’s disaffected voters, a rejuvenated Congress could well become the preferred party.

It is the fragmentation of votes in Kashmir that the BJP banks upon most for giving the Union Territory a Hindu chief minister. Look at the number of entities vying for the votes of Kashmiri Muslims: the National Conference-Congress alliance; Peoples Democratic Party; Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party; outfits perceived to be close to the BJP, such as Apni Party and Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference; and Jamaat-e-Islami candidates contesting as Independents. Add to them the BJP’s Muslim candidates in select constituencies of Kashmir.

Spoilt for choice and alienated from most of the political players because of their dubious past, it is presumed Kashmiri Muslims will fail to consolidate behind a single formation and produce unexpected results, à la Engineer Rashid’s astonishing victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. With Kashmir’s 47 seats distributed among a large set of players, the BJP could coax or coerce some of them to support its chief ministerial candidate.

Yet there is a countervailing factor working on Kashmiri Muslims who, despite their disgust for dynasts, want to deny the BJP its dream of having its chief minister in the Union Territory. This would be their revenge against the BJP for humiliating them by annulling the special status they enjoyed, and for implementing harsh security laws to curb their freedoms. The desire for vengeance will likely drive them towards the National Conference, for the party along with the Congress not only can win some of the 12 Muslim-majority constituencies in the Jammu region, but also thwart the BJP in those having a Hindu majority.

Should the BJP succeed in installing a Hindu chief minister in J&K, its achievement would be showcased as an event as momentous as the reading down of Article 370 was. It will give the BJP a point to crow about in the Assembly election campaigns in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi. In case the BJP performs below par in the Jammu region and fails to muster a majority, it would be a signal that its Hindu votebank is no longer enamoured of Hindutva.

The writer is a senior journalist and author of Bhima Koregaon: Challenging Caste
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