The results show the Sena trailing much behind the BJP, its ally in the Assembly polls of 2019, who together won a majority to form the government, but parted ways in the most unusual circumstances. The three-party government came to power, with all partners vying for widening their base that the BJP had dented in the past five years.

Winning as much in the local body government elections is considered a step forward in getting approval from the voters who also decide the governments in the state. The NCP, the Sena’s partner in the present government, has done what is expected of the ruling party, by doubling the number of councils it heads. The third MVA partner, the Congress, is not far behind the NCP; the party it has been rivalling even when together and otherwise. Since consistency and the Congress hardly go together, one cannot guarantee its success in the next round of local body polls.

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The Sena can be expected to use an opportunity to plug a huge gap between itself and the BJP (ultimately the MVA partners) in the next round of elections that will have the two parties fighting very close in Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai and other cities in the MMR, and rest of Maharashtra, especially Aurangabad and Nashik. The NCP is preparing to oust the BJP from the Pune Metropolitan Region area. Vidarbha’s certain pockets gave the Congress an upstick against the BJP in the recently concluded polls, but it did not suffice to put up an all-out fight against the BJP. 

The Congress has an onerous task of fighting its guts out to defeat the BJP in the municipal body of Nagpur where the millennials have to be told that the national party ruled the city for decades in the 20th century.

Under a compulsion forced by the local leaders who have been successful in telling their respective leaderships that sharing of seats in small elections endanger the very existence of the parties at the ground level, the MVA partners will again be fighting independent of each other in the next big phase of local bodies. The results should help the MVA partners fathom their individual might in their influence and non-influence areas. It will also give the BJP, now pledged to fight solo come what may, a much-needed data to plan its mega mission of forming the government on its own in 2024 (assuming that the MVA will not fall on its own or be made to fall, necessitating a mid-term poll). As of now, the approach is to go out there on a solo mission and return with the results to stitch up a post-poll arrangement with a sole purpose to keep the BJP out of power, wherever possible.

The BJP will enjoy the power where it has a comfortable majority, but will be under pressure to prevent defections. The MVA-like formations will be attempted wherever possible. The independents will rip the benefits by switching over to the MVA parties. In fact, the MVA-like formations in the local bodies aren’t a novelty, making one believe that the 2019 experiment was just an extension of the idea, not to forget a successful one executed by Sharad Pawar in his first tenure as the CM of Maharashtra. The only difference is that the BJP (then Jan Sangh) shared power with a Congress splinter headed by Pawar.

So, in the present context where does the BJP stand in Maharashtra? Shaken in 2019 and stirred every now and then thereafter, it derives the happiness in being the single largest party and vows to hold the position in the years to come in all future elections. But will that suffice for claiming power in the state government where undisputed numbers are needed? 

The next phase of local bodies and the Assembly elections will make the voters’ preference even more clear and throw up a combination of parties from among the MVA that we may see fighting in alliance. With the BJP maintaining that it will fight alone to win a majority in the Assembly, the NCP emerges as an open-ended unit which can go, either with the Sena or the Congress (or the BJP?), depending on the equations it develops with the partners in the times to come. In all circumstances in the future, the NCP will be a party to be watched keenly for its ambitious run, driven not only by the supreme leadership but also by the heavyweights in its rank.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
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