Since the Congress party has supported the Thackeray Sena, its share of about 28,000 votes in 2019, including Muslims, will be decisive for swinging the result. The Congress held the segment by fielding a non-Marathi for several terms (before and after delimitation), but lost twice in 2014 and 2019, reducing its vote share by 28,000 in 10 years. The Sena’s Marathi Manoos Ramesh Latke lost once in 2009 (in pact with BJP), but won twice later--first in 2014 without the BJP, and then in 2019 with the BJP. However, BJP’s current candidate Murji Patel rebelled in 2019 to finish second by getting 45,808 votes against unified Sena’s 62,733. Yet, the unified Sena increased its vote count by 10,000 in 2019, because not all BJP sympathisers voted for the rebel, who was with the Congress earlier; and the MNS was not in the contest it had been part of twice before. In Sena’s two wins, the BJP fielded a non-Marathi, officially in 2014 (Sunil Yadav who bagged more than Murji's 2019 count) and unofficially in the next (Murji). The MNS has not put its candidate in the by-poll, but the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi has. The BJP has set up a non-Marathi again, knowing well that the Thackeray faction has turned it into a poll plank, in addition to the allegation that the ruling party was solely responsible for its split.

Sympathy vs structure

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In the by-election in October 1970, which gave Sena its first MLA, the CPI had fielded a widow of Krisha Desai, the then MLA from Parel and trade union leader who was murdered early that year. But, in a close contest, the CPI lost to the Sena despite a sympathy wave that old-timers say was definitely there then. It was a battle fought for supremacy in trade union politics, after which there was no looking back for the Sena. Decades later, it’s a reverse situation. The CPI has pledged support to Thackeray in a contest in which the late Balasaheb’s son is banking on sympathy for the widow of Ramesh, Rutuja Latke, and the efforts promised by the constituents of the Maha Vikas Aghadi, the Congress in particular. To counter it, the BJP will be using its well-built structure against sympathy. BJP's organisational effort came into play much before the election schedule was announced. It has been way ahead of the opponents and ally Shinde Sena, who have been spending time fighting over the party’s ownership and symbol. BJP knew Thackeray had a competitive candidate-in-waiting and was sure that Shinde would have to back out because he didn’t have a strong nominee. Thackeray faction has alleged that Shinde tried to woo the widow to join his fold. It has also accused the CM and BJP of creating hurdles in her resignation process, which is expected to be used in the campaign.

Past imperfect, future tense

Past is being rekindled, especially in view of Thackeray’s move to get associated with the Congress. The former CM and his friends in other parties, some of whom had quit the Sena in a shocking manner, have been recalling that for the late Sena founder, the Congress wasn’t ‘party non grata’. They have been flipping through history pages to establish Balasaheb’s alliances, covert and overt, with the Congress of the past. They say the Congress of the present can be a perfect political ally for defeating the BJP. The Andheri East result, considering which side it is for, will definitely affect the Sena factions and the BJP, who are preparing for an upcoming bigger contest in the BMC and other local bodies in the rest of Maharashtra. 

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
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