“Along with empowering women, it is also the country’s top priority to ensure their safety. Today, I understand the pain and anger of my sisters and mothers from any state. I want to appeal to the state governments and political parties that crime against women is an unpardonable sin and it should not be tolerated. Anybody who commits such crimes and those protecting (the accused), whoever it is, should be punished. The message should go from top to the bottom,” said the PM while addressing a gathering of Lakhpati Didi Sammelan in Jalgaon, Maharashtra.

Modi’s message was for those in power, including his own party/allies, and also for the Opposition. As all waited for a word from him, the PM spoke about the crime at the gathering of women coming from various states. Had he not dealt with the subject anytime soon, the PM would have invited criticism, because women have been at the forefront in the agitations over the Kolkata and Badlapur incidents. Still, the PM runs the risk of being criticised if the accused in Badlapur (because it’s a BJP-led state) is not punished as demanded by the masses (the PM also referred to a life sentence or capital punishment in heinous crimes against children). Further criticism awaits him if the alleged protectors of the accused/institute are spared by the law.

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Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram

It’s a ripe time for leaders to switch sides or go independent, especially for those who do not see any possibility of getting a party ticket to contest elections in a completely changed scenario of the two opposite alliances of three parties each. There are leaders who have been preparing to fight the incumbent MLAs since 2019-20. In BJP, the situation didn’t change much when it bonded with Shiv Sena (Shinde), but the entry of a third partner, NCP (Ajit Pawar) has altered the equations. It was either BJP versus undivided NCP/Congress or undivided Sena versus undivided NCP/Congress till 2019. The same is happening with the MVA in which the Congress and undivided Sena had fought against each other. But since most sitting MLAs of the Sena and NCP are with Shinde and Ajit Pawar, and alliance partners have been insisting on the ‘who sits it, gets it’ seat-sharing formula, the problem is going to be seen mostly in the Mahayuti.

The BJP is all set to lose, among others, two prominent leaders from western Maharashtra where it had managed to dent the NCP-Congress dominance in the past two Assembly elections. BJP’s Kolhapur rural president, Samarjeet Sinh Ghatge is expected to join Sharad Pawar. He wants to fight a five-time Kagal MLA and sitting minister, Hassan Mushrif (NCP-Ajit Pawar), who he could not defeat in 2019. Ghatge comes from a royal family in which a great social reformer Maratha king, the late Chhatrapati Shahuji Maharaj, was born.

Another leader, Harshvardhan Patil (former independent and Congress MLA from Indapur in Pune), has been aspiring to defeat the two-time victor from Ajit’s group, Dattatray Bharne. Since the seat will be going to Bharne again, Patil, a four-time winner between 1995-2009, may try his luck as an independent or find a suitable party. His tenure as an independent was so plum that he led a flock of partyless MLAs for over a decade to get a ministerial position for himself and others. In 2014, he had lost to Bharne when all four major parties had broken their pre-poll alliances. As the Congress-NCP alliance was forged again in 2019 and the seat went to NCP, Patil quit his party just before the 2019 elections to contest unsuccessfully as a BJP candidate. Senior leader Suryakanta Patil resigned from the BJP to join hands with her former party boss Sharad Pawar again, a month ago. A former MP Shishupal Patle joined the Congress early this month. People in the know say that more defections will be seen in both alliances, mostly based on local equations, as the elections approach.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
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