“The southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of plus or minus 4 days. Advance of southwest monsoon over Andaman Sea normally takes place around May 20 with a standard deviation of about one week. During the last few days, enhanced convection and increased rainfall activity has been observed over the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.

“The cross equatorial flow is likely to strengthen and deepen over the area. As such, conditions are becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea and adjoining sea areas during the next 3-4 days,” IMD release said.

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Unlike last year, when it was delayed by four days, monsoon this year would hit Kerala on May 30, the event denoting the official onset of the wet season in the country.

The official date for monsoon to hit the southern state is June 1.